A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
